2 December 2018. In the 56th minute of Unai Emery’s first North London derby at the helm of Arsenal, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang curled a sensational goal for the first time beyond Hugo Lloris to equalize scores at 2-2.
Aubameyang’s goal – his second goal of the match after a first-half penalty to open the scoring – sent home fans in awe at the Emirates Stadium, and the Gabonese forward then served Lucas Torreira to score the Arsenal’s last goal in a 4-2 victory.
Arriving from Borussia Dortmund in January of that year, Aubameyang scored 22 Premier League goals in 2018-19, sharing the league’s Golden Boot with Liverpool duo Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane.
It was a tally he matched the following season, knocking competition top scorer Jamie Vardy off by one, but after lengthy contract negotiations that led Aubameyang to sign a new three-year contract last September, his form hit a wall.
His league total dropped to just 10 goals last season, with Aubameyang scoring just three times before the end of the year.
Despite having participated in each of Arsenal’s league games so far this season, Aubameyang has only scored one goal, which came in the 1-0 win over Norwich City earlier this month. He had six attempts in that match, only getting two on goal.
At 32, it seems that Aubameyang’s leadership is now behind him, even if Sunday’s North London derby with Tottenham could be the catalyst to ignite his form and really start Arsenal’s season?
Using the Opta data, Stats Perform evaluates whether there is a way back to the top for Aubameyang, or is the end of the road nearing?
Shooting on sight isn’t always the right choice
Aubameyang’s second goal in that December 2018 derby was a magical moment as he caught Lloris out with a sensational goal for the first time from outside the box.
However, the sight shooting policy does not appear to be an effective solution to Aubameyang’s faded form.
Aubameyang has at least scored this season and has racked up nine league attempts, but those efforts averaged 0.14 xG (expected goals), the lowest score of his career at Arsenal.
Given that the only successful goal – against Norwich – was a goal on the goal line worth 0.96 xG alone, the second best chance of the entire Premier League season by that metric, it’s easy to paint a picture of otherwise ambitious shooting habits from Aubameyang. His remaining eight rolls had a combined xG of 0.39 – or 0.05 per roll – meaning they came from occasions where a player is highly unlikely to score.
In contrast to Spurs talisman Harry Kane, who has only had four attempts so far this season and has only recorded 7.5% of his touches in the opposing area, Aubameyang is taking the career record of 17.1% of the his touches in the opponent’s area. in the box, yet the Tottenham number 10 has equaled his three shots on goal so far.
The Laca factor
Arsenal have been blessed in recent seasons, with two – in their day – high quality scorers to call in the form of Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette. Although at times, this may have resulted in both players having to compromise.
The latter has only made one league appearance so far this season, replacing Aubameyang in the second half of Arsenal’s 5-0 at the hands of Manchester City last month, and sometimes there has been a problem with entering both. the forwards in the team.
Aubameyang was often deployed wide to accommodate Lacazette, who in turn played deeper at times or had to settle for a bench seat to enter the attacking mate in the center.
Since Aubameyang joined the club, he and Lacazette have played 92 of the same games, with the Gunners recording 40 wins, 20 draws and 32 losses.
That 43.5 percent win rate is significantly lower than the 55 percent hit record in matches where one of the forwards hasn’t played (22 wins in 40 of those matches).
He would suggest that the way forward for Arsenal now is to stick with one or the other. Lacazette overtook Aubameyang in the league last season, although as the Gunners’ skipper the latter is apparently ahead in the pecking order.
Doesn’t Arteta help?
Both Emery and successor Mikel Arteta wanted to develop a style focused on playing from behind, although given rhythm is Aubameyang’s main asset, it would seem that a direct approach could be the optimal way to get the best out of the attacker.
Arguably Arteta’s best matches as Arsenal boss have come in the semi-final and final of the 2019-20 FA Cup, with Aubameyang scoring twice in both games to help the Gunners claim the trophy.
Aubameyang’s pace was crucial, with his second goal in the 2-0 semi-final over City coming at the height of a run from the left, the striker hooked on Kieran Tierney’s ball before falling under Ederson.
A similar trend followed in the final: Aubameyang won a penalty by isolating Cesar Azpilicueta in that left channel and converted from 12 yards to restore parity before skillfully finishing for a second-half winner.
The coolest man in Wembley #HeadsUpFACupFinal | @EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/0SUpDfbiRT
– Arsenal (@Arsenal) August 1, 2020
It appeared that Arteta was using this tactic more in his first midseason in office. In a shared campaign between Emery and Arteta, Aubameyang scored seven Premier League counterattack shots, although he only scored one. He had five such attempts the previous season, although he only made three in 2020-21.
Aubameyang also saw his touches in the opposition drop significantly last season, from 152 in 2019-20 to 125, while he had 149 in Emery’s only full season in charge.
The amount of shots Aubameyang is shooting has also dropped from season to season, from 94 under Emery, to 93 in the following season, to just 57 last season.
While he somewhat surpassed his predicted target value (14.75) in 2019-20, suggesting he finished some tough chances, an xG of 10.22 last season seems to reflect where Aubameyang is at.
However, a 7.81 xG on target (xGOT) score, which evaluates the level of his shots rather than the quality of the chances, suggests that the former Saint-Etienne’s finishes were not the best and could suggest that some poor goalkeepers contributed to his total championship. Compare this to 2019-20, when Aubameyang’s xGOT surpassed its xG value and indicates a declining striker, perhaps not helped by a slower build game.
Sunday’s match could be crucial for Arteta, whose team has finally picked up victories after entering the national break at the bottom of the standings. For Aubameyang, it is an opportunity to prove that he still belongs to the league’s elite strikers.