This weekend, the pinnacle of German football will take on a special meaning when Bayern Munich take on Borussia Dortmund at the Allianz Arena.
Dortmund have posed a serious challenge to Bayern’s enduring Bundesliga dominance this season and are one point clear of the reigning champions.
Bayern’s failure to take control of the title race led to their unexpected parting ways with Julian Nagelsmann on 24 March.
He was replaced by a man who has another side to this legendary rivalry, Thomas Tuchel, who was BVB coach from 2015 to 2017.
Tuchel’s Borussia defeated Bayern on the road to DFB-Pokal glory in 2017, but the former Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea boss is now under enormous pressure to ensure Die Roten wins.
For Dortmund, a victory in Bayern could help Edin Terzic’s men secure the title.
But history is categorically against them doing this. With numbers, Opta Stats Perform previews a potential deciding headline.
2.09 – Thomas Tuchel averaged 2.09 points per game in 68 Bundesliga games against Borussia Dortmund – the best average per game of any manager in BVB Bundesliga history. Meeting. #FCBBVB pic.twitter.com/AjaH9DOFbO
— OptaFranz (@OptaFranz) March 31, 2023
Munich disaster Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund’s 2-2 draw against Bayern Munich ended their eight consecutive defeat streak in competitive matches against them.
But the Allianz Arena has become a horror house for the BVB. Indeed, Borussia Dortmund have lost their last eight away games against Bayern in the league.
In the history of the Bundesliga, Dortmund have had only one longer streak of away defeats: against Werder Bremen from 1979 to 1989 (10 matches).
Good omens for BVB
By their high standards, Bayern have struggled hard in 2023.
They have only won five of their 10 Bundesliga games in 2023 (D3 L2) and have accumulated 52 points after 25 games.
This is their lowest total at this stage of the season since 2011/12, when they had 51 points. The season ended with Dortmund winning the title, Bayern have not lost since.
Since the resumption of this campaign, Borussia have amassed a record 22 points in eight games. This is a BVB club record after eight games in the second half of the season. The last time they scored this many points at this stage was in the 2011-12 league season under Jurgen Klopp.
The omens are good for Dortmund as they look to end Bayern’s reign, but they will need to avoid repeating what happened the last time they were at the top of the Bundesliga in the second half of the season.
Countertops in trouble?
Dortmund top the table for the first time since the second round of the 2019/20 season.
Prior to this campaign, they had not been at the top in the second half of the season since matchday 27 of the 2018/19 season, in which they thrashed Bayern 5-0 at the Allianz Arena.
Simply put, Borussia Dortmund cannot afford the same outcome this time if they are to continue their quest to topple Bayern.