Can Forest and Leeds pull off surprises in the Premier League title race against Arsenal and Manchester City?

    Manchester City beat Arsenal last week to close the Gunners’ lead at the top of the Premier League to six points.

    City, with a game in hand, beat modest Southampton last time and will face another relegation challenger on Saturday in Leicester City, who will be managed by Dean Smith for the first time.

    Meanwhile, Arsenal will play West Ham in the London derby. The Hammers are also fighting at the wrong end of the table, although two wins in their last three league games have given David Moyes’ team some confidence.

    Nottingham Forest are another team that refuses to survive and Steve Cooper will make sure that the home advantage against Manchester United counts.

    Similarly, Leeds United are hoping the loyalists of Elland Road will help them triumph over Liverpool, whom they beat at Anfield early in the campaign.

    With the help of Opta’s data, we’ve come up with some key predictions ahead of another exciting weekend in the Premier League.

    Manchester City – Leicester City

    City have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Leicester City (L2), having won the last four in a row since a 5-2 home defeat in September 2020.

    Having lost seven of their last eight Premier League (D1) matches, Leicester have lost 19 matches this season. Since the 2001-02 (20) season, the Foxes have not lost more than 20 league matches in a single season, and if they lose to City it would be the second-highest tally they have suffered 20 defeats in a Football League campaign.

    Leicester midfielder James Maddison has scored in this match in each of his last two campaigns; only two guests have scored Premier League goals at the Etihad Stadium for three consecutive seasons – John Collins (2004-05 to 2006-07) and Tim Cahill (2008-09 to 2010-11).

    Best bet – Erling Haaland to score: Is there a way to stop Holland? Many teams have tried and almost all have failed. The Norwegian has already scored 30 league goals this season, averaging every 73 minutes with a 33.3% shot conversion rate. Given Leicester’s defensive weaknesses, the 22-year-old will lick his lips.

    Long shot – Leicester to score a clean sheet: The Foxes have not prevented an opponent from scoring in league matches since November, when they beat West Ham 2-0. If they want to get out of trouble, then interim boss Smith must find a way to handle the situation behind the lines.

    Opta-prediction: Leicester have won four of their first five Premier League visits against Manchester City (L1) but have since lost five of their last six games at the Etihad Stadium (L1). So it’s not surprising that Opta’s supercomputer has City (75.1%) as the favorite, while Leicester have a mere 8.5% chance of winning.

    West Ham – Arsenal

    Arsenal have won 11 Premier League away games this season, with more away wins in 2001/02 (14) and 2004/05 (12). The Gunners have the most wins (11), the most points (35), the most goals scored (30) and the fewest goals conceded (11) of any team away from home in the Premier League this season.

    They also won eight Premier League games against West Ham after conceding the first goal, including a 3–1 win in the reverse leg in December. This is both Arsenal’s most wins against an opponent when underperforming first, and West Ham’s most defeats against a team opening the scoring in the competition.

    Arsenal have scored 72 goals at an xG of 60.1 in the Premier League this season, a +11.9 margin behind only Manchester City (12.2). Meanwhile, West Ham have scored 27 goals at an xG of 38.4 and their -11.4 difference is the biggest negative difference this season.

    Best bet – Arsenal to score first and avoid defeat: The Gunners are the only team to have yet to lose a Premier League match, having scored the first goal of the season, winning 18 times and drawing three. However, they missed a two-goal lead in their 2-2 draw with Liverpool last time.

    Long shot – West Ham win: West Ham have won only two of their last 29 Premier League matches against Arsenal (D5 L22), who have only lost three of their 26 Premier League visits to West Ham (W14 D9) and won nine of their last 14 away matches against Arsenal. Hammers (D4 L1).

    Opta-prediction: Given West Ham’s disastrous result against the Gunners, Opta estimates their chances of success at just 28.8% and a tie at 28.4%. Arsenal have a 42.8% chance of winning.

    Nottingham Forest – Manchester United

    This is Forest’s first home game against United since February 1999, when they lost 8-1 with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer scoring four times as a substitute.

    Forest haven’t won (D3 L6) and haven’t scored in their last nine Premier League matches. In fact, Forest are unwinnable in all 23 league games they have conceded this season (D8 L15), with all six of their wins being clean sheets.

    United have lost three of their last four away matches in the Premier League (W1), having lost only three of their first 10 away matches this season (W5 D2). The Red Devils have conceded 29 goals in 14 league away games this season; not since the 1978-79 season have they scored 30 goals in their first 15 league away games.

    The best option is that United will avoid defeat: United have won their last nine games against Forest in all competitions, beating them three times this season alone (once in the league, twice in the EFL Cup). The Red Devils have beaten the team four times in a season, having done so against Sheffield Wednesday in 1993-94 and Chelsea in 2010-11.

    Long-range kick – Jesse Lingard to score: Lingard has yet to score for Forest in the league. He could become the third former United player to score his first Premier League goal against the Red Devils, after Keith Gillespie at Sheffield United in 2006-07 and Dan James at Fulham this season.

    Opta-prediction: United have won their last six Premier League games against Nottingham Forest with at least three goals on each occasion and they are favorites for Sunday’s game and Opta suggests there is a 52 chance they will score three points. 6%. The chance of a forest is 20.6%. A draw is valued at 26.8 percent.

    Leeds United – Liverpool

    Leeds were defeated 5–1 by Crystal Palace in their last home game and are only two points above the bottom three. Depending on other results, the Whites could be in the relegation zone by the start of Monday’s game. They are only counting on their second Premier League double over Liverpool, which was previously achieved in the 2000-01 campaign.

    Liverpool have not lost in any of their last five visits to Elland Road against Leeds (W3 D2) since a 4-3 defeat in November 2000, when Mark Viduka scored all four goals for the hosts that day .

    This season, the Reds are averaging 0.87 points per game away in the Premier League (13 points in 15 away games), the lowest in the entire campaign since 1992-93 (0.76-16 points). in 21 games).

    Best bet – Mohamed Salah will be involved in a goal: Salah has scored seven goals in five Premier League games against Leeds for Liverpool, netting in a 3-0 win at Elland Road last season. No Reds player in the Premier League has more goals against Leeds than Salah (Robbie Fowler also has seven), and only Gordon Hodgson has more goals in league history (nine).

    Long-range shot – less than 1.5 goals: Leeds have scored 10 goals in three Premier League matches in April (W1 L2), more than any other team this month. Liverpool, who have not won their last five matches in all competitions (D2 L3), have scored 15 goals in their last five top flight games against the Whites.

    Opta-prediction: Despite poor away form, Liverpool were the favorites for Team Opta (61.4%). Leeds win is estimated at 15.8%, the forecast for a draw is 22.8%.

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